Subprime Loans, Foreclosures, Clueless Academics, Politicians, Madoff and the Recession
July 4th, 2009I have been watching and reading a lot the past few months, holding my anger in. No more. It’s July 4th, independence day, and it’s time citizens take back this great country and throw / vote out the liberal social engineers that call themselves Congressmen, Congresswomen and President. Plain and simple, it was idealistic liberal elites that caused the housing bubble, the subsequent mortgage meltdown and the ensuing and ongoing global meltdown and a U.S. recession that will most likely be relabeled as the 2nd Great Depression. This is a very long post… I think you will find it quite informative.
In the July 3rd, 2009 Wall Street Journal, on page A13 is a ridiculous article by Stan Liebowitz, a professor of economics at the University of Texas at Dallas. With all due respect, while this man has more education, degrees, accolades and publications than 1,000 non-academics have combined, it is apparent he is functionally clueless as to how the mortgage industry really works, or at least used to work before D.C. socialists mucked it up.
The graph that accompanies his article is self-explanatory and he does an excellent job of pointing out that in 2008, 285,305 loans that were foreclosed had negative equity, meaning they were “upside down” or “underwater.” In layman’s terms, that means the amount owed on the mortgage was more than the value of the home. When people who bought homes near or at the top of the housing bubble, mostly from 2005-2008, saw property values plummet almost from the very year they bought the home, Mr. Liebowitz concludes: “They find it easier to walk away from the home.” Duh!
Mr. Liebowitz states correctly that the common belief is that SUBPRIME loans are what caused the mortgage / housing meltdown. However he then states that it is homes with negative equity (upside down) that are the primary cause and further states these are prime loans (not subprime) and accounted for 51% of all foreclosed loans.
If all this seems too confusing, it is because an academic (Mr. Liebowitz) that has never been in the mortgage industry, is trying to explain the cause of the meltdown vs a mortgage industry professional who actually knows what he is talking about. I suspect his inanity can be explained by two factors:
1. Mr. Liebowicz’ ignorance of real world knowledge having never been in the mortgage industry (vs reading textbooks and other business literature).
2. The liberal prism he views the world through that blinds him to the true causes of the mortgage crisis based on inescapable facts.
Let’s examine each one.
Prior to approximately 2002, we had only three types of mortgage loans:
1. Prime loans, also known as Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac loans, also known as conforming loans, also known as A paper loans
2. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans
3. Veterans Administration (VA) loans
Let’s take each one and examine who qualified for each loan type.
1. Prime (Fannie / Freddie, conforming, A paper) loans…
The essence of this category of loans is that borrowers who qualified were based on what the definition of “Conforming” is. Conforming to what? Fannie and Freddie guidelines is the answer. What were those guidelines before the social engineering of liberals in Congress changed them in the now very failed guise of “affordable housing?”
FICO (credit) scores above 620
Debt-to-income (DTI) ratios no more than 36% for housing + all other installment and revolving payments (credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc.)
A downpayment of 20% or more.
Proof of income.
Job stability.
This was sanity also known as “relatively stronger underwriting standards, especially a requirement for relatively high downpayments.” (A direct quote from Mr. Liebowitz’ WSJ article today, stated as what was needed to have prevented the meltdown.) Keep in mind that this was what was called PRIME loans until the liberals in Washington changed the rules. More on this later in this post.
2. FHA loans - affordable housing for people who couldn’t qualify under PRIME loan guidelines. Although the term wasn’t in vogue in 2002, FHA loans were by definition, SUBPRIME or “non-conforming” loans… loans to borrowers that didn’t meet PRIME (”relatively stronger underwriting standards”) guidelines. FHA was the precursor to SUBPRIME mania only we called them FHA loans back then. This was actually ok because only about 3% of all loans were FHA loans. People with: less than 20% down, lower FICO scores (down to the low 500’s in some FHA loans), higher DTIs and less job stability. (They still had to prove their income however.) A high percent of these FHA loans were to minorities and many had not established a credit history so they were allowed to document payment histories never sent to the 3 credit repositories: landlords (rent payments), contractors who did work on their homes and were paid in installments, utilities and more). FHA was a great program but contained these non-conforming / SUBPRIME loans to just about 3% of all homeowners.
3. VA loans - veterans of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and the U.S. Coast Guard were allowed zero downpayment and up to 45% DTI’s. They had to document their income, job stability and had to have good credit, occasionally below 620 FICO’s at the discretion of the VA underwriter. (If any small group of people deserve a relaxation of underwriting guidelines, it is our Veterans who served and many of whom put their lives on the line for us.)
So there you have the segments of the mortgage industry up until around 2002. Then the rules began to change and we’ll get back to why the rules changed in a minute. BUT.. the fact that they did change renders Mr. Liebowitz’s article, well, naive and insanely ignorant.
Here’s why. He states that negative equity (homeowners who are upside down on their mortgages) accounts for 51% of foreclosures in 2008 but that these are PRIME (conforming) borrowers, not the SUBPRIME (non-conforming) group that he claims is a misperception as the cause of the meltdown. Well, if people are upside down in 2008 and 2009, the vast majority of these people are upside down because they made little to zero downpayments when they bought the home and a HUGE number of them also used the so-called Alt A and Option ARMs that proliferated from 2004-2007! Many of these borrowers had great FICO scores but FICO scores were just 1 of about 5 requirements to be so-called PRIME or conforming borrowers! Based on “stronger underwriting standards” in use up to around 2002, these are SUBPRIME borrowers, and for the most part, had smaller downpayments across the board whether they used Fannie and Freddie (PRIME) loan programs, Alt A or Option ARM loan programs. (Insanely, banks started offering “piggyback” second mortgages that allowed borrowers to borrow the 20% down payment and only have an 80% first mortgage, therefore obtaining a PRIME or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan. Although I cannot pinpoint the date these came into vogue, this was a back door way for high FICO borrowers to get a zero downpayment loan that was never allowed before the banks and Washington relaxed all the sane underwriting guidelines. These loans allowed high FICO borrowers to get PRIME loans but were in essence the very definition of high risk or SUBPRIME loans! Another loophole came into play by allowing private mortgage insurance (PMI) to guarantee “prime” loans with 5%, 10% or 15% downpayments, less than the PRIME (conforming) guideline of 20%. These borrowers who used piggyback second mortgages or the PMI insurance to get around the 20% PRIME downpayment requirement guideline, all had very high FICO scores and DTIs that still met PRIME guidelines. You can see the lines between what constitutes PRIME vs SUBPRIME got very convoluted in the push by liberals to increase homeownership by people that couldn’t qualify under traditional, sane underwriting guidelines.)
Let’s recap because it can be confusing:
PRIME borrowers up to 2002:
20% or larger downpayment
FICO’s above 620
DTIs no higher than 36%
Proof of income
Job stability
SUBPRIME borrowers - anyone who didn’t meet all of the PRIME guidelines!
If you didn’t meet all the PRIME guidelines, you were a SUBPRIME borrower and either got an FHA loan (or VA if you were a veteran) OR YOU DIDN’T GET A HOME LOAN! YOU WERE A RENTER until you could qualify to be a PRIME borrower. Many people should have remained renters. End of story.
So here’s my beef with Mr. Liebowitz’s article… he declares that it isn’t SUBPRIME borrowers in these ALT A, Option ARM and other SUBPRIME loans (known as 3/1, 5/1 ARMs, 2/28, 3/27 and others) that caused and continue to cause the high rate of foreclosures that is still accelerating. He claims the cause is borrowers who made little to zero downpayments, many with high credit scores. Hello! Those are (prior to 2002) by definition, SUBPRIME borrowers!!! Duh again.
The underwriting rules / guidelines for PRIME borrowers were “relaxed” around 2002 and we saw the advent of so-called Alt A guidelines. (These were also called “barely missed” Fannie / Freddie programs. What they “barely missed” were PRIME guidelines!!!) If a loan was not PRIME, it was SUBPRIME or non-conforming to the old “stronger underwriting standards” Mr. Liebowitz is now crying out for and clearly states would have prevented the meltdown! If only we had adhered to those “stronger underwriting standards” indeed Mr. Liebowitz, we would not have had a meltdown!
Just because the PRIME / CONFORMING / FANNIE-FREDDIE guidelines were changed (”relaxed”), does not mean they are or were PRIME borrowers! No! It means Washington social idiots changed the rules (underwriting guidelines) so that Fannie & Freddie could now buy from banks what used to be called SUBPRIME loans! The fact that Fannie and Freddie used to ONLY buy PRIME loans from banks has not meant since about 2002 or 2003 that they were buying safe, statistically predictable performing loans from PRIME borrowers, based on what we used to know as “stronger underwriting standards”! NO! It means they changed the definition of what PRIME and SUBPRIME loans are and then they (Washington, the banks and Wall Street) loaded up the balance sheets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, banks, pension funds, retirement accounts and many other conservative investment vehicles the world over that were told by Standard & Poors, Fitch and Moody’s were all AAA rated mortgage backed securities or collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). (Internal emails from these 3 ratings agencies proved the subordinates who labeled the CDOs as AAA, knew they were NOT AAA but were told by managers basically to “shut up, stamp them and get them out of here.”) The ratings agencies have not yet had their feet held to the fire over this farce but hopefully will be under “truth commissions” promised by Washington. (If you believe that will ever occur and really tell the truth about the who and what that caused the meltdown, I have some AAA rated CDOs in my 401k turned into a 201k I’d like to sell you at a great price.)
Mr. Liebowitz, in claiming that 51% of the 2008 foreclosures were not SUBPRIME loans, but rather PRIME loans, conveniently or ignorantly, ignores the irrefutable fact that today’s non-performing (delinquent) loans, whether foreclosed or headed to foreclosure, are indeed mostly SUBPRIME loans based on “stronger underwriting standards” that existed before the Washington liberals social retooling of the entire mortgage industry guidelines, rules and sanity that existed before 2002. In fact, 73.8% of the categories of foreclosures shown in his chart would have been SUBPRIME loans under “stronger underwriting standards” he laments went away. That’s pretty damn close to 75% of all foreclosed loans in 2008 that would have been classified as SUBPRIME loans 7 years or more ago.
So, if Mr. Liebowitz wants to pretend that the rules didn’t change he can paint a facade that makes it look like SUBPRIME lending practices did not cause the bubble and the attendant meltdown but that simply is not reality. In order to point fingers at the appropriate people and policies, he must accept the fact that it was an expansion of the definition of PRIME (conforming) loans and therefore previously SUBPRIME (non-conforming) borrowers could use previously PRIME loan programs to own a home, all in the spirit of increasing home ownership by people who could not qualify for a mortgage loan under “stronger underwriting standards” that were used for decades and decades before 2002.
Here’s the sequence of events and the people that caused the relaxation of sane underwriting standards that led to higher homeownership, the drastic lapse and changing of the underwriting standards, the real estate bubble, the housing / mortgage implosion and the toxic mortgages (CDOs) on the balance sheets of institutions, municipalities and in retirement plans the world over, causing the global meltdown:
- President Jimmy Carter signed the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) calling for banks to make more loans to people who normally couldn’t qualify (SUBPRIME borrowers).
- President Bill Clinton creates quotas for the banks who he felt were not making enough CRA loans.
- President Bill Clinton commands Robert Rubin, his Treasury Secretary, to re-write the charters of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, allowing them buy SUBPRIME loans for the first time, providing the banks a secondary market to sell these toxic assets to and get them off the bank’s balance sheets as quickly as they made them.
- President Bill Clinton increased the quotas for Fannie and Freddie. In effect Clinton now set in motion a mandate to banks to make more and more of these loans and Fannie and Freddie an annually increasing requirement to buy them.
- As the momentum of making these very profitable loans escalated (loans that carried higher rates and fees to offset the higher risks of SUBPRIME borrowers), Wall Street chose to create CDOs and sell these ostensibly AAA rated securities to the world. Along came a new breed of lenders, mostly not banks at first, that created the Alt A, Option ARM, 2/28, 3/27 loan programs that also saw the advent of pre-payment penalties and hidden fees to soak unsophisticated SUBPRIME borrowers. A Harvard professor, Howell Jackson, did a study in 2002 (before SUBPRIME loans were around to much degree) that showed there were hidden fees on 80% of all loans and that these hidden fees amounted to 40% of the overall costs of a loan! Someone should do a study on the era of SUBPRIME loans from 2003-2007 and see what percent of those had hidden fees. It’s probably near 100%.
- As various conservatives in Congress saw the debacle that was to become the housing bubble, hearings were held to warn that SUBPRIME lending was out of control and should be stopped. These hearings took place from 2003-2007 as the bubble built into an out of control bad lending practices leviathan.
- Maxine Waters, Barney Frank, Chuck Schumer, Chris Dodd (who was getting sweetheart loans at favorable terms U.S. citizens couldn’t get from Countrywide), Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and a host of others all recorded for viewing on YouTube and in the congressional records, defended Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, stating that things were ok - “looking good going forward.” Barney Frank made that statement on national television just a few months before the bubble burst and Fannie and Freddie had to be taken into receivership by the U.S. government. Anyone who bought stock in Fannie and Freddie on Mr. Frank’s assurances of solid companies lost 100% within months.
So, Professor Liebowitz, crying in your academic milk that “stronger underwriting standards are needed” is correct. It is also incredibly hypocritical to pretend that those standards didn’t exist before the social engineers in Washington totally destroyed a very effective mortgage mechanism that had worked quite well for decades and decades.
If you look back at the chart on page A13 of the 7-3-09 WSJ, add up all the categories that are SUBPRIME loans by the standards that existed before being dismantled and defended by Congressional liberals, you get:
Negative Equity - 285,305 loans foreclosed in 2008
Downpayment of less than 3% - 130,014 loans foreclosed in 2008
Subprime FICO score - 148,697 loans foreclosed in 2008
That’s 564,016 loans that would have been classified as SUBPRIME loans prior to 2002.
Divide that by a total of 763,405 2008 foreclosed loans.
That’s 73.8% of 2008 loans that are SUBPRIME by definition prior to 2002.
Anyone who tries to make claims that the housing / mortgage meltdown was not caused by SUBPRIME lending standards, SUBPRIME loans and SUBPRIME borrowers, per the “stronger underwriting standards” that existed prior to 2002, is simply a ‘”Don’t confuse me with the facts” idealogue.
The next thing you know, the banks and the government will coerce the FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) to change “mark to market” rules and allow banks who made these loans not have to perform impairment tests that would require a label of “impaired assets” and a hit to earnings and therefore be out of compliance with their debt to asset ratios. Oh, wait, they did try to do that and it failed! Perhaps, Professor Liebowitz can now switch horses and rail against the banks. If he could get the banks to pay off (with lobby dollars of course… it’s the way of Washington), the right politicians, they could resurrect the movement to get that FASB change, get those toxic mortgages reclassified, tell the world how much better their “suddenly improved” balance sheets are and taxpayers could start feeling so much better about buying cars from Government Motors, insurance from AIG and Bank of America stock at 1/20th of the price it was at before the Fed strong-armed BofA CEO Ken Lewis to buy a rotting corpse known as Merrill Lynch, sinking like the Titanic due to SUBPRIME mortgages, CDOs and failed credit default swaps on their books. Too big to fail has turned into just so much cronyism as usual.
The very banks, Wall Street companies and mortgage mavens that made billions while destroying the economy of the U.S. and infecting the world’s economy with toxic mortgages, all Madoff with their plunder, screwed shareholders and taxpayers and now our corrupt politicians will not hold them accountable for this travesty of epic proportions. As far as most taxpayers are concerned, each one of these bit players is just as guilty as Bernie Madoff and should be in jail beside him.
Clueless, narcissistic, greedy and arrogant politicians and academics are ruining this great country.
Mortgage Economics 101 for idiots:
PRIME borrower = good credit, low DTI, proof of income, good job history, 20% downpayment = historically very low risk = high % of performing loans
SUBPRIME borrower = high risk, high % of non-performing loans
Zero Downpayment = high risk & SUBPRIME borrower regardless of FICOs
High DTI = high risk, high % of non-performing loans
No proof of income = high risk, high percent of non-performing loans
No job stability = high risk, high % of non-performing loans
It is disingenuous at best to change the rules professor, then come in and claim that SUBPRIME loans aren’t the cause of most of the foreclosures when it clearly IS loans that would never have been made under the Fannie and Freddie parameters of common sense PRIME loans just a few years ago. SUBPRIME does not mean only people with poor credit (low FICOs). SUBPRIME parameters, for a host of reasons, is why banks didn’t make loans to these people until the government stepped in and forced them to with the CRA, quotas, high probability of default (SUBPRIME) underwriting guidelines and then rewrote the very charters of Fannie and Freddie to make certain that there was a very liquid secondary market to buy these loans from the banks so they would never run out of money to make more SUBPRIME loans!
Idiots!
Anyone who doubts what I have written here should go to: www.aei.org (American Enterprise Institute) and use the search button for: The True Causes of This Financial Crisis dated 2-19-09. This is an excellent article by senior fellow Peter J. Wallison. This man is a brilliant scholar, not blinded by politics and trying to hide the true causes of the financial crisis. He lays out who, what, when and how all the policies I spoke of above came to be and the irrefutable fact trail that leads right back to Washington’s liberal elites. Yes, the banks and Wall Street got very, very greedy and we failed to have in place a regulatory mechanism that could have spotted and stopped this, but all that was after the fact. It is simply irrefutable that the policies, rule changes, laws and enforcement (quotas) were all put in place by Democrats and enforced ruthlessly by left wing social engineers masquerading as Senators, Representatives and Presidents.
Ted Krager
America’s Homeowner Advocate
tkrager@gmail.com
America’s Homeowner Advocate